4 Predictions for AI in 2024: What Experts Say

1. AI Becoming Ubiquitous

Google made a big splash at the end of 2023 with the launch of Gemini, a powerful AI model that rivals OpenAI's GPT-4. In the coming months, Google plans to release even more advanced versions of Gemini. Not to be outdone, OpenAI is gearing up to launch a GPT store in early 2024, allowing users to build and sell their own versions of ChatGPT. This trend of integrating AI into various products will continue, making AI tools a common part of our daily lives. According to Charles Higgins, cofounder of AI-training startup Tromero, accessibility is the key. Gemini is already seamlessly integrated into familiar products, making the use of AI tools the new norm rather than the exception.

Another noteworthy trend to watch in 2024 is the rise of open-source AI models. Unlike closed systems like GPT-4 and Gemini, these models are freely available for anyone to use and modify. Meta, for example, has embraced this approach by making its Llama 2 model widely accessible and forming an "open science" alliance with companies like IBM. However, the high cost of training AI models means that truly open alternatives developed by smaller players are unlikely to gain popularity in the near future. Sophia Kalanovska, a fellow Tromero cofounder, explains that the open-source community still relies on big companies like Meta to release their models due to the resources required for training.

2. OpenAI Facing Challenges

OpenAI has experienced tremendous success with ChatGPT since its launch in late 2022. However, recent weeks have seen signs of trouble, with users reporting degraded performance and the chatbot refusing to carry out certain tasks. OpenAI has acknowledged these issues and is investigating why the chatbot has become "lazier." This unusual behavior highlights the mysterious nature of large language models and adds to the pressure on OpenAI, which has already faced internal turmoil with the departure and subsequent return of CEO Sam Altman. As competitors like Gemini and Elon Musk's Grok enter the arena, OpenAI will likely face an even tougher year in 2024.

3. Copyright Battles Looming

The entire AI industry is currently grappling with a significant legal question: Is it legal to train AI models on data that includes copyrighted content? Lawsuits such as Getty Images' case against Stability AI in the UK and the lawsuit filed by comedian Sarah Silverman and other authors against OpenAI in the US revolve around this unanswered question. Dr. Andres Guadamuz, a professor of intellectual property law, believes that 2024 could bring one or two decisions that help clarify the legal landscape. However, it may take four to five years to fully settle this issue. The outcome of these legal battles poses a potential threat to the AI industry, as the cost of using copyrighted data to train large and complex models like GPT-4 could be prohibitive. While crippling legal defeats would set back the AI revolution, development might simply shift to countries with more lenient regulations.

4. Urgent Need for Regulation

Unlike the European Union, which recently agreed on controls for generative AI tools, the United States has yet to make significant progress in regulating AI. As AI continues to disrupt various industries and concerns grow over the real-world impact of AI-generated content, experts argue that 2024 is the year for meaningful regulation. Vincent Conitzer, a professor of computer science, emphasizes the importance of addressing the implementation details of regulations, as the rapid pace of AI development makes it challenging to keep up. Dr. Guadamuz agrees, suggesting that regulators should step in proactively rather than waiting for court decisions to address the complex legal questions surrounding AI.

In conclusion, AI is poised to become an integral part of our lives in 2024, with increased accessibility and integration into everyday products. OpenAI will face challenges from competitors and legal battles surrounding copyright issues. The need for regulation becomes more urgent as AI continues to impact society. As we look forward to the future of AI, it is crucial to navigate these developments responsibly and ensure that AI technology benefits society as a whole.

—————————————————————————————————————————————
By: tcarter@insider.com (Tom Carter)
Title: 4 Predictions for AI in 2024: What Experts Say
Sourced From: www.businessinsider.com/experts-ai-in-2024-could-be-bad-news-for-openai-2023-12
Published Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2023 10:27:01 +0000