The Changing Congressional Map: A Shift in the Battle for Control of the House

Introduction

The fight for control of the House of Representatives is undergoing a significant shift as the congressional map continues to change. The partisan tilt of a few districts could potentially alter the balance of power even before voters head to the polls. With Republicans holding a narrow three-seat majority, the redrawing of various congressional maps across the country, due to lengthy court battles, has already had an impact on the upcoming elections. The final configuration of these maps could potentially favor Democrats, tilting the field slightly in their direction. As we approach the primaries in some states, several questions remain unanswered regarding the shape of certain districts. In this article, we will explore some key redistricting storylines to watch in the coming months.

The Impact of New Maps in North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia

Three states, namely North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia, have already drawn new maps in response to successful litigation. In North Carolina, the Republican-dominated legislature created a strong GOP gerrymander last year, potentially resulting in the party gaining up to four additional seats. The state currently has an even split of seven Democrats and seven Republicans, but the GOP-controlled state Supreme Court has paved the way for a potential 10-4 Republican split. As a result of the new map, three Democratic incumbents have chosen not to seek re-election, as their districts have transformed into safe GOP territory. Additionally, a battleground district held by Democrat Don Davis has become slightly more Republican-leaning, although it is still expected to be competitive. At best, Republicans could gain four seats, while at worst, they would net three seats.

On the other hand, Democrats are likely to pick up one seat in Alabama due to a federal court's finding that the previous lines violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters. The Supreme Court affirmed this decision. The newly drawn majority-Black district in Alabama presents an opportunity for Democrats to elect a representative of their choosing, potentially leading to a split of five Republicans and two Democrats in the state's delegation, instead of the current six Republicans and one Democrat.

In Georgia, the new map maintains the partisan composition of the delegation, with nine Republicans and five Democrats. However, the map has put Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath's political future at risk as her district has been significantly altered. After a judge declared the previous lines as a violation of the Voting Rights Act, Republican legislators redrew the map, creating more majority- or near-majority-Black districts while preserving the same partisan balance. McBath's former district, which was a majority-minority district or a "coalition district," has been divided to accommodate a new majority-Black seat.

Litigation is ongoing for the new maps in Alabama, North Carolina, and Georgia. Republicans in Alabama have appealed the court-drawn lines, Democrats in North Carolina have filed a lawsuit alleging racial gerrymandering, and Georgia Democrats are expected to challenge the new lines. Despite these legal challenges, it is likely that these maps will remain in place at least until 2024.

States Yet to Draw New Maps: Louisiana and New York

Two states, Louisiana and New York, are yet to draw new maps despite court orders. Louisiana's map was found to have likely violated the Voting Rights Act, similar to Alabama and Georgia. The state will need to create another Black opportunity district, leading to the potential election of a Democratic representative. The GOP-dominated legislature has until the end of January to draw new lines, and a special session may be held in the middle of the month.

In New York, Democrats have challenged a hypercompetitive, court-drawn map that was used in the previous elections. The court ruled in favor of the Democrats, leaving the ultimate partisan split in the state uncertain as new lines are being drawn. In the 2022 redistricting, the Democratic-controlled legislature implemented a significant gerrymander that could have resulted in wins in up to 22 out of the state's 26 seats. However, the court-drawn map led to 11 Republicans in the delegation after the midterms. In this year's redraw, Democrats may attempt to regain their advantage or opt for a less aggressive gerrymander to maintain a clear edge, considering the potential for a lawsuit from Republicans. The process will involve an independent redistricting commission, but the Democratic-controlled legislature will have the final say. The outcomes in New York could have a significant impact, as several seats remain uncertain.

Both Louisiana and New York maps' futures are uncertain and may face further review in the courts before being finalized for the 2024 elections.

Maps Still Being Litigated in Various States

Several maps in different states are currently being litigated. The most significant case is in South Carolina, where the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the alleged illegal racial gerrymandering of the 1st Congressional District, currently represented by GOP Rep. Nancy Mace. Although the court has not given an indication of when it will release its decision, it seems unlikely that the conservative justices will side with those arguing for the map's invalidation, potentially leaving the GOP-leaning district intact.

In Utah, the Supreme Court has yet to issue a decision on a partisan gerrymandering case argued in July. Republicans in the state had dismantled a battleground district around Salt Lake City, creating four safe Republican districts. If the challengers are successful, the swing district could be reinstated, creating a competitive seat for both parties.

Florida is facing a pair of cases challenging its map, which saw several seats flip in favor of Republicans in the previous elections. A state court case has low odds of success after an appellate court overturned a lower court ruling that deemed the map unconstitutional. Additionally, a federal judge has not yet issued a ruling on a racial gerrymandering claim after a hearing in September. The timing for these rulings remains unclear, but if Democrats ultimately prevail, they could gain at least one seat.

While the uncertainty surrounding the maps in states like New York and the ongoing litigation in various courts may only affect a few seats, every district counts for Republicans, who hold a slim majority. As the battle for control of the House intensifies, the final makeup of these districts will have a significant impact on the outcome of the upcoming elections.

Conclusion

The changing congressional map and ongoing redistricting efforts are reshaping the fight for control of the House of Representatives. With the potential for shifts in the partisan composition of districts, the battle for control is becoming increasingly competitive. The outcomes of new maps, ongoing litigation, and court challenges will determine the final configuration of districts and the potential impact on the balance of power in the House. As the primaries approach and the elections draw nearer, the significance of these redistricting storylines cannot be overstated.—————————————————————————————————————————————
By: Zach Montellaro
Title: The Changing Congressional Map: A Shift in the Battle for Control of the House
Sourced From: www.politico.com/news/2024/01/08/house-redistricting-2024-elections-00134053
Published Date: Mon, 08 Jan 2024 05:00:00 EST