The Uncompetitive Republican Presidential Primary: Trump’s Dominance and the Race for Second Place

An Uncompetitive Race

In the Republican presidential primary, the biggest news on Tuesday was the endorsement of an obscure New Hampshire restaurateur for Nikki Haley's campaign, signaling a shift away from Chris Christie's camp. However, the impact of this endorsement is minimal considering the overall state of the race. With just two weeks remaining before the Iowa caucuses, it is clear that the race has become incredibly uncompetitive. Donald Trump, the frontrunner, is currently polling above 60 percent nationally among Republican primary voters. In contrast, his once-chief rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is struggling to gain traction and spent the weekend at a Sheraton Hotel ballroom in West Des Moines. Trump himself celebrated the New Year at Mar-a-Lago, enjoying a performance by Vanilla Ice and a dancing Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle. As the campaign shifts to Iowa this week, Trump arrives having already secured a substantial lead, leaving his competitors far behind in what has felt like a slow-motion coronation for months.

Trump's Unorthodox Success

Trump's dominance in the polls and his ability to defy conventional political wisdom are remarkable. This is evident both nationally and in the state of Iowa. Doug Gross, a GOP operative and former chief of staff to former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, who plans to caucus for Haley, acknowledges Trump's unique appeal. Gross states, "Trump defies all political gravity and rules and consistently has, both nationally as well as in the state of Iowa. And that's why he's in the position he's in because he has such a strong base following and a strong brand and knows how to play the fiddle."

Despite skipping four GOP debates and minimizing his presence in early nominating states, Trump has not taken the primary lightly. His campaign team has actively sought endorsements, relied on state parties, and established a sophisticated delegate operation. Trump himself will make his presence felt in Iowa ahead of the caucuses, with scheduled appearances on Friday and Saturday. Next week, he plans to counterprogram a CNN debate with a Fox town hall in Des Moines.

In a memo released on Tuesday, top Trump lieutenants Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles made a bold statement, asserting that the only "real battle is who will place second" in Iowa. Their sentiment is hard to dispute considering Trump's overwhelming lead.

Media Hunger for New Developments

In a primary that has been relatively uneventful, the media is constantly searching for new angles and narratives. On Tuesday, the spotlight briefly shifted to Tom Boucher, an influential restaurateur named to Christie's steering committee in New Hampshire. Boucher announced his endorsement for Haley, providing a temporary diversion. However, this endorsement only serves as a reminder of the stark contrast between candidates. Shortly after the Boucher news, Trump secured the endorsement of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R.-La.), further cementing his position. Trump also raised the possibility of flipping traditionally Democratic states like New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Virginia.

While the outcome of Trump's prospects in these states remains uncertain, his improved primary positioning since 2016 is evident. His campaign now boasts hundreds of volunteer door-knockers who canvass early nominating states every weekend.

A Disciplined and Focused Campaign

Trump's campaign strategy has been more disciplined and focused compared to his previous runs. Dave Carney, a veteran GOP strategist based in New Hampshire, acknowledges this improvement. Carney states, "He's run a much more disciplined and focused campaign than the other two times, and though it's a low bar, quite honestly, who the hell cares? He has a great organization that's finally getting noticed. Sometimes, it's not playing prevent defense, but being smart with your candidates' resources."

Despite the minimal presence Trump will have in Iowa compared to his competitors, there is no urgency for him to do more. Jeff Timmer, a senior adviser to the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, believes that Trump should stick to his strategy and avoid unnecessary risks. Timmer states, "Why would he do anything different? It’s risking upsetting his strategy, the work he has done in nothing but going up and consolidating his strength. Let DeSantis and Nikki Haley debate on CNN. OK, great. I'm gonna go on Fox and have my town hall and preempt everything — suck all the air out of it."

In the end, it is Trump who plans to dominate the stage and outshine his competitors, just as the '90s rapper he hosted at his resort once boasted about doing.

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By: Adam Wren
Title: The Uncompetitive Republican Presidential Primary: Trump’s Dominance and the Race for Second Place
Sourced From: www.politico.com/news/2024/01/03/trump-king-of-drama-sucks-all-of-it-out-of-the-gop-nomination-fight-00133514
Published Date: Wed, 03 Jan 2024 05:00:00 EST