‘Best-case scenario’ for Trump as GOP rivals splinter

The Challenge for Trump's Republican Critics

DURHAM, New Hampshire — Donald Trump's Republican critics have been hoping for the best-case scenario: one of his opponents gaining momentum in Iowa, followed by a breakthrough in New Hampshire. However, recent developments have made it clear that this idea is becoming increasingly unrealistic.

New polls from Iowa show that not only is Trump maintaining his significant lead in the first caucus state, but he is also expanding it. His support among likely Republican caucus-goers has reached an impressive 51 percent. Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Republicans who are desperate for an alternative to Trump are further fragmenting the field.

The endorsement of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by the popular Republican governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, only adds to the division. Sununu becomes the third early-state governor to endorse a different candidate, with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster supporting Trump. While this is great news for Haley, it is a disaster for Republicans hoping to move on from the former president. It seems that the effort to block Trump from the nomination has experienced one of its worst weeks yet.

According to Phil Taub, a prominent New Hampshire donor and Republican activist, this situation is the best-case scenario for Trump. As long as the votes are split among multiple candidates, Trump doesn't even need to secure 50 percent of the support.

Divided Rivals and a Fractured Field

Trump's opponents not only fail to unite behind one candidate, but they are also actively making it harder to do so. Lower-polling candidates show no sign of stepping aside before the voting begins, which complicates the situation even further.

Haley plans to wait for the winnowing process to continue as the primary calendar progresses through Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and eventually South Carolina, where she believes she can take on Trump one-on-one. On the other hand, DeSantis argues that he is the only candidate who can beat Trump because he appeals to Trump's base and can attract some of those voters.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie sees a path through New Hampshire and Michigan, while Vivek Ramaswamy, an independently wealthy biotech entrepreneur, has every reason to stay in the race as long as he continues to draw attention. And then there is former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who continues to campaign despite polling at around 1 percent.

According to veteran New Hampshire-based Republican strategist Dave Carney, none of the candidates are dropping out. All the voters who are against Trump are divided among four candidates, and the math is simple: the more divided the opposition, the stronger Trump's position becomes.

The Trump Advantage

In the 2016 election, Trump was down by 3 percentage points in Iowa to Sen. Ted Cruz but ultimately came in second by the same margin. Despite lacking majority support and facing a fractured field, Trump went on to win the GOP contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, securing the nomination.

The problem for anti-Trump Republicans this time is that not only is the field divided, but Trump's lead in all four early states is significantly higher. With time running out before the first votes are cast, his rivals have failed to close the gap. Despite increasing campaign events in early states, securing influential endorsements, and spending a combined $167 million on advertisements, Trump's opponents have made little progress.

However, few of these efforts are aimed at directly challenging Trump. During the last GOP debate, the candidates spent more time attacking Haley, who has been gaining momentum, than they did attacking the frontrunner himself. Even the allies of Haley and DeSantis continue to spend money on television ads against each other instead of focusing on closing the gap with Trump.

Christie, who has repeatedly urged his rivals to stop attacking one another and go after Trump directly, has recently started criticizing Haley on the campaign trail as he tries to surpass her in the New Hampshire polls. This fragmentation only benefits Trump, who openly delights in his opponents' self-cannibalization.

The Dilemma for Trump's Opponents

To make matters worse for Trump's rivals, there is no guarantee that if more candidates drop out, their supporters will shift to another Trump alternative. Recent polls show that half of likely DeSantis voters consider Trump their second choice, and more Ramaswamy voters would break for Trump than for DeSantis.

By focusing their attacks on each other instead of the frontrunner, the candidates are failing to condition their supporters to back someone other than Trump when the field further shrinks. According to Lucy Caldwell, an independent political strategist who ran former Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh's failed campaign to primary Trump in 2020, some of the supporters of the candidates who drop out will likely become Trump voters. The assumption that these groups are united in their opposition to Trump is wishful thinking.

In this contest where Trump is so dominant, the candidates are resorting to wishful thinking and seizing on every small shift in public surveys to bolster their case. Christie, for example, has been telling voters that it is now a three-person race between him, Haley, and Trump in New Hampshire after polls showed him rising to third place. Sununu further narrowed it down by stating that it is a two-person race, with Trump feeling nervous.

However, voters who don't want Trump as the nominee for the third consecutive cycle are becoming increasingly nervous themselves. They fear that the field is still too large to prevent a repeat of 2016.

Sandra Batchedeer, an independent voter from Auburn, New Hampshire, who voted for Trump in 2020 and is now leaning toward Haley, believes that there are too many candidates. She thinks that the field needs to narrow down significantly to avoid further division.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to thrive amidst the disarray of his detractors. Following a week of his rivals crisscrossing the state to speak to a few hundred voters at a time, Trump drew thousands of supporters to a rally in Durham, a Democratic stronghold. He mocked his lower-polling rivals and expressed his confidence in maintaining his lead.

According to Trump's campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung, watching his rivals self-destruct is like watching two junior varsity teams tripping over each other to the theme of Benny Hill playing in the background.

In the end, the only candidate who has experienced a surge and a bounce is Trump himself, while his opponents struggle to secure second place in a race where only first place matters.—————————————————————————————————————————————
By: Lisa Kashinsky, Natalie Allison and Meridith McGraw
Title: ‘Best-case scenario’ for Trump as GOP rivals splinter
Sourced From: www.politico.com/news/2023/12/17/trump-gop-rivals-primary-00132155
Published Date: Sun, 17 Dec 2023 07:00:00 EST