The Need for a Plan B
Democrats have been reluctant to discuss the possibility of a Plan B for their presidential nominee. However, special counsel Robert Hur's report has forced them to confront this issue. Hur's characterization of President Joe Biden as an "elderly man with a poor memory" and "diminished faculties" has brought attention to Biden's age and mental fitness. Combined with the perception that Biden is too old for another term and his trailing in swing state polling matchups against former President Donald Trump, serious questions have arisen about whether Biden is the right choice to lead the party in November. This has raised the need for Democrats to consider a contingency plan.
The Challenges of Swapping Nominees
Swapping out Biden for another nominee would not be an easy task due to procedural and political hurdles. The most likely outcome is that Biden will remain on the ticket. However, there are scenarios where the party may choose to nominate someone else at the August convention or even select an alternative candidate for the general election.
Biden's Choices
A backup strategy can only be deployed if Biden voluntarily steps aside or is physically unable to stand for nomination. Currently, Biden is on track to secure the Democratic nomination, with no significant disputes within the party. Despite concerns raised by his longshot rival, Rep. Dean Phillips, Biden has maintained his lead. Phillips has faced backlash for broaching the subject of nominating someone other than Biden.
The Timing Issue and Potential Candidates
At this point, it is not feasible for a late-entering candidate to challenge Biden. Filing deadlines for primary ballot access will have passed in all but six states and the District of Columbia by the end of this month. Even if a candidate managed to get on the ballots in those remaining states, it would not significantly impact Biden's delegate count. Biden is expected to amass more delegates on Super Tuesday, March 5, in California alone than from those six states and D.C. combined.
The Practical Plan B
Short of incapacitation or a convention floor revolt, there is only one practical Plan B. Biden would need to agree to step aside voluntarily and pass the baton to another nominee. This would allow him to leave with dignity and on his own terms. The process would involve Biden completing the primary campaign and winning a substantial number of pledged delegate votes. After securing the nomination, Biden would announce that he would not accept it and release his delegates to support a different nominee. He could emphasize that he accepts the public's concerns about his age and wants to pave the way for a future generation of Democratic leaders.
The Battle for Succession
After Biden's announcement, potential successors would vie for the nomination. Private polls testing various candidates' viability in the general election would be conducted. From June 4 to August 19, the start of the party's convention, senior Democrats would compete for position in a battle rarely seen in American politics.
The Convention Drama
Biden would still hold significant influence heading into the convention. Most delegates would be pledged to him, and while not legally required to support his chosen successor, many would likely follow his lead. The convention would be filled with drama as every party faction attempts to leverage the situation to their advantage. The potential field of candidates would be vast, including not only 2020 Democratic hopefuls but also those eyeing future nominations.
Post-Convention Chaos
If Biden were to be nominated but subsequently unable to compete in the November election, convention rules would dictate the process for selecting a new nominee. The party chair, Jaime Harrison, would confer with Democratic leadership and the Democratic Governors Association and report to the Democratic National Committee. The committee's members would then choose a new nominee and potentially a new running mate.
Challenges for Republicans
Republicans also face challenges similar to Democrats. Their likely nominee, Trump, is also advanced in age and faces legal issues that could impact his candidacy. However, the Republican convention delegates are bound to their candidate on the first ballot, making it difficult to deny Trump the nomination if he has the majority of delegates.
The Absence of Safeguards
These situations reveal the absence of mechanisms within weakened national parties to safeguard the best interests of the party and the nation. As long as Biden and Trump continue their campaigns, there is no real mechanism to derail their nominations.
In conclusion, Democrats may need to consider a Plan B for their presidential nominee. Although there are challenges and hurdles to overcome, it is possible for Biden to voluntarily step aside and allow another nominee to lead the party in November. The process would involve Biden completing the primary campaign, securing the nomination, and then announcing his decision not to accept it. This would trigger a battle for succession among potential candidates, leading to a dramatic convention filled with intrigue. Alternatively, if Biden were to be nominated but unable to compete, the party would need to follow specific rules to choose a new nominee. These scenarios highlight the need for safeguards within national parties to ensure the best interests of the party and the nation are protected.—————————————————————————————————————————————
By: Charlie Mahtesian and Steven Shepard
Title: Democrats Might Need a Plan B. Here’s What It Looks Like.
Sourced From: www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/12/joe-biden-democrat-plan-b-nominee-00140790
Published Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2024 05:00:00 EST
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