The Uncertain Future of Israel's Fight Against Hamas
Israel's military is using overwhelming force in its fight against Hamas in Gaza, much like the US did after the 9/11 attacks. The goal is to ensure that Israel will never be blindsided by a massive terrorist attack again. However, beyond the certainty of ending Hamas, Israel faces an uncertain future and a political dilemma that it has yet to address. This predicament has hamstrung the United States in similar conflicts, and experts on military strategy believe it will define the success of Israel's war.
The Importance of Providing Security in Gaza
In its fight against Hamas, Israel faces the challenge of permanently ending the group. Even if it succeeds, it has failed to clearly articulate what will replace Hamas and why it would represent a better future for Palestinians in Gaza. Experts emphasize that the most important lessons from previous conflicts are political in nature. They ask, who will provide security in Gaza once the fighting ends? Without security, nothing else will last. This question will determine the ultimate success of Israel's war.
The Devastation of Israel's All-Out War in Gaza
Since Hamas carried out terror attacks in Israel, Israel has unleashed an all-out war in Gaza, reminiscent of the destructive battles of World War II. The Israeli Defense Forces are taking out military targets in civilian settings, resulting in thousands of civilian casualties. Israel's air force has conducted nonstop bombing runs, while ground forces prepare to clear Gaza's largest city of Hamas fighters. However, what remains unclear is who will lead Gaza once Hamas is destroyed.
The Challenge of Articulating Goals
Israeli leaders have struggled to articulate their goals in Gaza. Netanyahu has stated that Israel will have overall security responsibility for an indefinite period, but there is no clear plan for what comes after Hamas. Israeli troops may remain in Gaza until it is demilitarized, potentially facing an insurgency supported by a radicalized population. The question of how long Israel will occupy the territory or if it will transfer it to another authority remains unanswered. This lack of clarity poses a problem for Israel.
The Failure of Israel's Strategy: "Mowing the Grass"
Israel's strategy towards Hamas-controlled Gaza has been described as "mowing the grass." This policy involves tolerating Hamas control until its attacks justify short campaigns to kill militants and reduce their capacity to threaten Israel. However, this strategy has failed to contain Hamas and break the cycle of Palestinian radicalization. Critics argue that Israeli operations in service of this strategy often result in a disproportionate number of deaths compared to Hamas attacks. It is a strategic fatalism that has not achieved its intended goals.
The Enormous Cost of Israel's War
The war between Israel and Hamas has already claimed thousands of lives, with the majority of deaths resulting from Israeli airstrikes. As Israeli troops move to strike Hamas fighters in Gaza city, the death toll will likely continue to rise. The sheer scale of the Israeli effort may require Israel to bear the costs of rebuilding Gaza unless another authority intervenes. The war's toll on civilian populations raises questions about Israel's strategy and the need to find a lasting solution.
Lessons from World War II and the Surge in Iraq
Israeli leaders have directly compared their fight against Hamas to World War II, viewing it as necessary and existential. However, the comparison may be more apt when looking at the last days of the war, where the assault on the capital of the Philippines resulted in significant civilian casualties. In 2008, Peter Mansoor, a retired Army colonel, emphasized the importance of finding willing partners among the opposition, as the US did in Iraq. The long-term success of Israel's war will depend on its willingness to empower Palestinians and work towards a peaceful future.
The Need for a Clear Plan for the Future
Should Israel succeed in destroying Hamas, the question of what comes next remains. Israel must be prepared to bear the costs of rebuilding Gaza and finding a way to empower Palestinians who seek a better future alongside Israel. If Israel is unwilling to do so, the cycle of violence may continue, and conflicts like this may occur again in the future. The key to success lies in providing security and a clear plan for the future of Gaza.
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By: sfellman@businessinsider.com (Sam Fellman,Sonam Sheth)
Title: Israel’s Gaza Fight: Lessons from the Wrong War
Sourced From: www.businessinsider.com/israel-risks-taking-lessons-for-gaza-fight-from-the-wrong-war-2023-11
Published Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:00:01 +0000
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