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- SpaceX is preparing for the first orbital launch for Starship, Elon Musk's cornerstone rocket to Mars.
- Musk predicted 50% success rate and suggested that the rocket might explode on its first orbital attempt.
- He said that there are other Starships in the wings, and that one of them will probably reach orbit this year.
SpaceX will launch its Starship mega-rocket into orbit today. This launches CEO Elon Musk's ambitious plan to eventually establish a colony on Mars.
Musk stated that SpaceX is ready for Starship launch from its Boca Chica facility in Texas. The company has called this "Starbase", and will receive a launch licence from the Federal Aviation Administration.
A small glitch in the rocket's software or hardware engineering can easily cause everything to go wrong.
Musk stated that the rocket is only 1 in 2 likely to reach orbit during a March 7 interview at the Morgan Stanley Conference.
He said that while he doesn't guarantee it will orbit, he was certain excitement and added: "Won’t be boring!"
Musk stated that he believes it has a chance of reaching orbit at 50%. He also said that SpaceX is currently building several Starship rockets, and that there's an 80% chance that one of these rockets will reach orbit in the next year.
Starship's history with suborbital test flights reveals that failure to reach orbit could lead to the rocket exploding.
Starships have exploded in the past, but their future is bright
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If the launch is successful, it will be the first ever fully reusable orbital rocket. SpaceX can revolutionize orbital economics by setting the stage.
Starship and Super Heavy, a 230-foot booster, were both created to return to Earth in order to fly again.
This is a huge money-saving move, as SpaceX wouldn't have to build another upper stage for each rocket launch. Starship can also transport huge payloads into orbit. It can carry up to 250 metric tons of payload, and up to 150 tonnes if the rocket will be used again. According to SpaceX's website.
This would make it more economical to send people, satellites, cargo, and spacecraft into Earth's orbit, as well as to Mars and the moon.
NASA chose Starship because of its promise of reusability, and its sheer flight power. It was chosen to land astronauts on the Moon for the first time since 1972. This historic moon landing is the agency's goal for the mid-2020s.
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Starship must first orbit Earth and safely return. SpaceX launched Starship prototypes six-miles into the air over Boca Chica in a series of test flights two years ago.
The first four explosions were followed by one that exploded on the landing.
Finally, the fifth Starship prototype powered up to 33,000 feet in the air, cut its engines and plunged back towards Earth. Then it refueled them just in the time to flip itself upright onto the landing pad.
Starship has not flown since. The Starship's first attempt at orbital flight will be its most difficult test.
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By: mguenot@businessinsider.com (Marianne Guenot,Morgan McFall-Johnsen)
Title: Elon Musk hints Starship rocket may explode on first orbital launch, predicting 50% chance of success and ‘guaranteeing excitement’
Sourced From: www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-estimates-spacex-starship-first-launch-odds-success-explosion-2023-3
Published Date: Mon, 13 Mar 2023 19:48:21 +0000
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